quinta-feira, 22 de dezembro de 2011

Os perigosos esquerdistas do FMI

É interessante ler o resumo do ano (via Krugman) escrito pelo economista-chefe do FMI, o francês Olivier Blanchard. É importante sublinhar que este é um cargo técnico, e que por isso quem lá está foi escolhido pelos seus méritos técnicos - por oposição à directora.
São quatro pontitos. Em três deles é clara a sua crítica ao discurso e as soluções dos líderes europeus.

1. the world economy is pregnant with (...) self-fulfilling outcomes of pessimism or optimism, with major macroeconomic implications.

Multiple equilibria are not new. We have known for a long time about self-fulfilling bank runs; this is why deposit insurance was created. Self-fulfilling attacks against pegged exchange rates are the stuff of textbooks. (..)

What has become clearer this year is that liquidity problems, and associated runs, can also affect governments. (...) If investors believe they are solvent, they can borrow at a riskless rate; if investors start having doubts, and require a higher rate, the high rate may well lead to default. (...) many governments are exposed. Without adequate liquidity provision to ensure that interest rates remain reasonable, the danger is there.

3. Some preliminary estimates that the IMF is working on suggest that (...) the joint effects of fiscal consolidation and the implied lower growth (...) lead in the end to an increase, not a decrease, in risk spreads on government bonds.

4. (...) perception molds reality.

(...) For example, nothing much happened in Italy over the summer. But, once Italy was perceived as at risk, this perception did not go away. And perceptions matter: once the “real money’’ investors have left a market, they do not come back overnight.

A further example: not much happened to change the economic situation in the Euro zone in the second half of the year. But once markets and commentators started to mention the possible breakup of Euro, the perception remained and it also will not easily go away. Many financial investors are busy constructing strategies in case it happens.