Revista de blogues (22/10/2011)

• «Ennahdha, the Islamist party, has run an incredible ground game. I traveled across northern Tunisia last week and they were easily the most visible party. There is clearly lots of grassroots support and they are well organized, much more than any other party. But, the party never polled more than 40 percent in any poll I’ve see. In fact, mostly, their figures are about 25-30 percent. Given the voting system (proportional representation with last remainders), they will probably receive a slightly lower proportion of seats than their percentage of the vote. (...) The PDP is probably the most widely known party in Tunisia outside Ennahdha. They have a good organization, and a lot of institutional support, but they have not been able to galvanize voters in the way Ennahdha has. A common complaint I hear is that they are the “usual politicians.” They are running the anti-Ennahdha campaign. They have said they oppose any coalition with Ennahdha and will look to lead a secular coalition. (...) Ettaktol (or FDTL, by its French acronym) is the main secular competitor to PDP. They surprised folks over the summer by polling in the double digits, overtaking PDP in some polls. Their platform is similar to PDP, but they have struck a more conciliatory note and have called on a national unity government, excluding no parties (including Ennahdha). (...) A key to the election will be which party comes out ahead – PDP or Ettaktol. The latter could represent greater reconciliation, while the former would represent a rebuke to Ennahdha. If either party polls greater than 20 percent it will be a real victory; under 10 percent would be a defeat. (...)» (Erick Churchill)